Assessing the Influence of Land Use Land Cover Alterations on Climate Variability in Thimphu & Chhukha

Authors

• Sonam Zangpo, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Jigme Namgyel Engineering College, Royal University of Bhutan, 41002, Dewathang, Bhutan.Follow
• Karma Choki, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Jigme Namgyel Engineering College, Royal University of Bhutan, 41002, Dewathang, Bhutan.Follow
• Tashi Tobgay, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Jigme Namgyel Engineering College, Royal University of Bhutan, 41002, Dewathang, BhutanFollow
• Phurpa Rinchen, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Jigme Namgyel Engineering College, Royal University of Bhutan, 41002, Dewathang, Bhutan.Follow
• Tandin Tshewang, Department of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Jigme Namgyel Engineering College, Royal University of Bhutan, 41002, Dewathang, Bhutan.Follow

Abstract

This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their influence on local climate variability in Bhutan using an integrated geospatial and machine learning framework. LULC changes during the period 2004 to 2022 were analyzed to understand their relationship with localized climate responses. Despite increasing urbanization pressures, comprehensive assessments linking LULC dynamics with climate variability in Bhutan remain limited. Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and Random Forest classification were used to map LULC changes, while non-parametric trend analyses (Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator) were applied to evaluate trends in key meteorological variables, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Results indicate that rapid urban expansion and agricultural intensification are the dominant drivers of landscape transformation and are associated with significant climatic variations across the study area. To project future scenarios, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automata–ANN (CAANN) models were used to simulate LULC and associated climate changes for the year 2028. Model projections suggest that continued urbanization and deforestation may lead to an approximate 15% increase in mean annual temperature and a 10% decline in annual precipitation. These changes may exacerbate water scarcity, intensify heatwave occurrences, and increase pressure on local agricultural systems and biodiversity. The findings highlight the strong linkage between anthropogenic land transformations and regional climate dynamics, emphasizing the need for integrated land-use planning and climate adaptation strategies. This study provides important baseline information to support evidence-based policymaking for sustainable land management and climate resilience in Bhutan.

Keywords

GIS; LULC; random forest; Mann-Kendall; ANN and CA-ANN model; Sen's slope

Publication Date

2026

Received Date

29 Jan 2026

Revised Date

29 Apr 2026

Accepted Date

06 May 2026

Recommended Citation

Zangpo, Sonam; Choki, Karma; Tobgay, Tashi; Rinchen, Phurpa; and Tshewang, Tandin (2026) "Assessing the Influence of Land Use Land Cover Alterations on Climate Variability in Thimphu & Chhukha," ASEAN Journal on Science and Technology for Development: Vol. 43: No. 2, Article 6.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.61931/2224-9028.1663
Available at: https://ajstd.ubd.edu.bn/journal/vol43/iss2/6